Key Points:

  • Refiner Squeeze: Crude Oil Crashes 16% → Record $70 Crack Spread → Pump Price Rises to $4.10

  • Record margin: US refiners earned $70 per barrel on July 16, the highest crack spread ever measured, while crude oil fell 16% in three days and pump prices climbed from $3.83 to $4.10.

  • Policy threshold: If the national gas price stays above $3.12 for seven consecutive days, the reintroduced Gasoline Export Ban Act of 2026 would auto-trigger a full halt on gasoline exports, a level the US has exceeded every day of 2026.

  • Export surge: Combined US oil and refined product exports hit 14.2 million barrels per day in early 2026, a 33% jump from 2025, with gasoline shipments up 27% and diesel up 23%.

Last Wednesday, a ship left the Houston Ship Channel. It was loaded with gasoline. American gasoline. Refined in Texas. Bound for Rotterdam.

That same morning, my friend in Ohio paid $4.10 to fill up his truck.

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I can't stop thinking about this. Two things are happening at once. And they don't add up.

Crude oil crashed last week. It fell 16 percent in three days. That is a huge drop. When crude falls, gas should fall too. It always has. But this time, gas went up. It cost $3.83 a gallon on July 2. By July 23 it was $4.10. Higher, not lower.

Something got wedged in between. Something big.

Here's what worries me. The oil is cheap now. The gas is not. Somebody in the middle is pocketing the gap. And it's not you.

The people who turn oil into gasoline just had their best week ever. On July 16, they earned $70 for every barrel they refined. That is the space between the price of crude and the price of finished fuel. It's called the crack spread. And $70 is a record. Not a yearly high. A record of all time. Nobody has made this much refining oil. Ever.

I get it. Refining is a real business. Companies buy the crude. They run it through big towers. They ship the fuel out. That takes money and skill. Fine. But $70 a barrel is not normal profit. That's a windfall.

And this is the part that really gets me. Our refineries are running flat out. 94.5 percent of capacity. They are pumping out more fuel than they ever have. So where is all of it going?

Overseas. Most of it.

In early 2026, we shipped out 14.2 million barrels a day of oil and refined fuel. That is a third more than last year. Gasoline exports jumped 27 percent. Diesel jumped 23 percent. The fuel our workers make, in our refineries, from our oil, is being sold to other countries.

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Meanwhile, our own tanks are drying up. Domestic gasoline stockpiles are near the danger line. That's the level below which stations run out. We are shipping more fuel out than ever, right when we have less on the shelf here.

I don't think most people realize this. We were told drilling more oil at home would mean cheap gas for us. That was the whole promise. Drill more, pay less. And we did drill more. We drill more than any country on the planet. But the pump price keeps going up.

The catch was in the fine print. Nobody said the gas had to stay here.

A congressman from California noticed. His name is Ro Khanna. He quietly filed a new bill this month. It's called the Gasoline Export Ban Act of 2026. It has one simple trigger. If the national gas price stays above $3.12 a gallon for seven days in a row, the government shuts down exports. Full stop. No more tankers to Rotterdam.

Here's the thing. We have been above $3.12 every single day this year. Every one. Not one day below.

Nobody knows if this bill will pass. It probably won't. The oil giants have a lot of friends in Washington. Exxon and Chevron and Valero and Marathon are not shy about writing checks. But the number Khanna picked stays with me. $3.12 is what he thinks fair gas should cost. Look at your last receipt. See how far you are from fair.

Do the math on your own family. If you drive two cars, and you fill both once a week, the gap between $3.12 and $4.10 is about $100 a month. That's $1,200 a year. Straight out of your pocket. Into somebody else's.

I remember the last time we heard "energy independence." I thought it meant cheap gas for us. It doesn't. It means the companies here can sell to the highest bidder. And the highest bidder is not always the guy driving to work in Toledo.

So this is where we are. A tanker leaves the Houston Ship Channel. It's loaded with gasoline made from Texas oil, in a Texas refinery, by Texas workers. It's bound for Europe. Or Mexico. Or Singapore.

And a retired guy in Ohio pulls up to a Marathon station on his way home from the store. He puts $60 into his F-150. He looks at the pump and shakes his head. He does not know the fuel in his tank came from a refinery that just sent its best load overseas. He just knows it hurts more than it used to. He just knows the math doesn't work anymore.

I told you last month the wellhead was one part of the story. This is the other part. And it's the part nobody in Washington wants to touch.

More on this tomorrow.

— Lauren
Editor, American Ledger

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