Key Points:
Fed Independence Chain: Trump fires Powell for being too hawkish → installs Kevin Warsh as chair → the full board votes 12-0 to hike anyway.
First Hike Since 2023: The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%-4% on a unanimous 12-0 vote, the first increase in more than three years, with Powell voting in favor.
Guided to Another Hike: The updated dot plot shows 16 of 18 members forecast at least one more quarter-point increase by year-end, and four expect two more, putting the terminal 2026 rate near 4.1%.
Rate Odds Shift: Odds of a second 2026 hike jumped to 87% after Warsh's press conference, up from 77% that morning, as traders repositioned into the December meeting.
Jerome Powell sat in the Fed boardroom yesterday. Trump fired him this year. And there he was, back at the table, voting to make your loans cost more.
I can't stop thinking about this.
Every bill you have with a rate that moves — your credit card, your HELOC, your car loan, your adjustable mortgage — just got heavier. And they told us another hike is coming by December. So it gets heavier again before Christmas.
Here is what happened. The Fed voted 12 to 0. Every single person at that table raised a hand. Even Kevin Warsh, the man Trump handpicked to cut rates, voted to raise them. Warsh is the new chair. He was supposed to be the president's guy.
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Then Trump got in front of reporters. He said something that stopped me cold. He told Warsh to vote with the board because Warsh did not have the votes. Those are his own words. "You might as well vote with the board because it's not going to matter."
Let that sit for a second.
The president admitted he cannot control the Fed. Even after firing the chairman. Even after picking his own guy. Warsh walked into the room and got outvoted before the vote even started.
A few hours later, Trump went on Truth Social. He demanded rates at 1 percent or less. The Fed did not blink. They hiked anyway. And the man he fired for being too hawkish? Still in the room. Still voting to hike.
I get it. Part of me feels a small dose of vindication. Powell held the line for years. He took the heat. He got pushed out for it. And then he sat down at that same table and voted with the rest of them. He got the last word without saying a word. He just raised his hand.
But here is what worries me.
The Fed does not care what the White House wants right now. They see inflation. They see prices climbing. And they are moving in one direction. Up.
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Rates are now 3.75 to 4 percent. That is the first hike in more than three years. Three years. And they are telling us another quarter point is coming by year-end.
The hike sounds small on paper. A quarter of one percent. But it lands on real money at real kitchen tables. On a $30,000 HELOC balance, that is another $75 a year in interest. On a $500,000 adjustable mortgage, it is $1,250. Multiply that across the whole country and you are looking at billions pulled out of family budgets in one afternoon.
And they said they are doing it again in December.
Think about what that looks like at your table. The credit card bill you already dread. It gets bigger. The HELOC you tapped for the kitchen remodel. It gets bigger. The car loan you took last spring. It gets bigger. Every month. Until they stop.
Nobody knows when that will be.
Look at what that vote really means. The Fed has 12 voting members. Not one crossed over to Trump's side. Not the new chair. Not Powell. Not one. That kind of unity does not happen by accident. It happens when a room full of smart people has looked at the same numbers and reached the same conclusion. And the conclusion is that prices are still too hot.
And here is the part I keep chewing on. The president said out loud that he cannot move the Fed. He tried. He fired the chair. He picked a new one. He posted. He called reporters in. Nothing worked. The Fed did what the Fed wanted to do.
That is either the best news you will hear all year or the scariest. Best, if you believe the Fed is finally protecting the dollar from a president who wants free money. Scariest, if you carry any variable-rate debt. Because they are not done.
I don't think most people realize what shifted yesterday. It was not just a rate hike. It was a signal that the game changed. The Fed just told the White House no. In front of the cameras. In front of the whole country.
And Powell, of all people, was sitting right there. Voting yes.
I want to say I know where this goes next. I don't. Nobody knows. But I know what I am doing at my own table this weekend. I am pulling up every debt I have with a floating rate. I am running the math on another hike in December. And I am going to have a hard conversation about which ones to pay down first.
You should too.
More on this tomorrow.
— American Ledger


