Last Tuesday a man most Americans have never heard of got a message from Iran. His name is Ga-Hyun Chung. He runs a shipping company called Sinokor out of South Korea. And as of November 1, every single ship he owns is banned from the Strait of Hormuz.

I can't stop thinking about this.

Chung spent nearly six billion dollars this year doing one thing. Buying supertankers. Giant ones. The kind that carry two million barrels of crude oil in a single load. He now owns 93 of them. His tanker fleet is over 160 ships. That makes Sinokor the largest supertanker operator on the planet.

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Here's what keeps me up at night. In September alone, Chung's ships carried 105.6 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. That is 37 percent of all the oil that moved through the most important shipping lane on earth. In early October his share of supertanker transits climbed past 50 percent. One man. One company. More oil than the next three carriers put together. Saudi Arabia's National Shipping Co, the Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, and Abu Dhabi's fleet combined moved fewer barrels than Sinokor did by itself.

Iran knows this. They have hit seven of his ships with missiles and drones already. One of his tankers, the Senegal Prosperity, took three rockets and was left dead in the water. And Chung kept sending them through. He offered his crews six months' extra salary for a single round trip. One voyage. About thirty days. Sail through a war zone, pick up crude, get out alive, and collect half a year's pay as a bonus. That's how dangerous it is. That's also how much money is at stake.

I don't think most people realize what just happened. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority did something it has never done before. It blacklisted an entire fleet. Not one ship. Not ten. Every vessel with Sinokor's name on it. The announcement went out October 27. The ban took effect November 1. That is two days before today. Two days before the midterm election. Two days before President Trump's strike moratorium on Iran expires.

None of that timing is an accident.

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The insurance market saw it coming before anyone else. Before the war, insuring a supertanker for one trip through Hormuz cost about a quarter of one percent of the ship's value. For a hundred-million-dollar tanker that was around $250,000. Today it runs between six and ten million dollars. Per trip. That is a nearly 4,000 percent increase. And those costs do not just vanish. They land on the price of every barrel. They land on the diesel that moves our food. They land on the heating oil that keeps our homes warm this winter.

Heating oil futures are sitting near $4.62 a gallon right now. Up about 118 percent this year. The EIA says the average winter price will be $5.26 a gallon. Brent crude closed Friday at $117.64. Up 75 percent from a year ago. And that price still assumes Sinokor keeps running the gauntlet. The oil market has been trading on something analysts call the midterm put. The belief that nothing truly catastrophic would happen before Election Day. That put expires today.

Here is the number I want you to remember. Thirty-seven percent. That is the share of all Gulf crude that flows through one company's ships. There is no backup fleet sitting in a harbor somewhere waiting to step in. You do not replace 93 supertankers overnight. You do not replace them in a month. The next three largest operators combined carried less than what Sinokor moved. If Chung's ships stop sailing — because of the ban, because insurers walk, because his crews refuse to die for six months' pay — there is a hole in the global oil supply that nobody can fill before winter hits.

I get it. We hear about the Strait of Hormuz every week now. It starts to sound like background noise. But this is not background noise. This is one man sitting in Seoul deciding whether to keep sending his ships through a shooting gallery. Seven of them have already been hit. The insurance costs ten million dollars a trip. Iran just told him every vessel he owns is a target. And the president's promise not to start bombing runs out today.

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Nobody knows what Chung decides tomorrow. Nobody knows if the insurers keep writing those policies. Nobody knows if the crews show up. What I do know is that a third of the oil that keeps the world running depends on the answer.

More on this tomorrow.

— American Ledger

*Disclaimer: Miso Robotics is offering securities through the use of an Offering Statement that has been qualified by the Securities and Exchange Commission under Tier II of Regulation A. A copy of the Final Offering Circular that forms a part of the Offering Statement may be obtained from: invest.misorobotics.com/. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements were included here that the Company believes to be accurate given the current information.