Key Points:
Trigger Chain: Iranian missile strike on Ras Laffan → European scramble for US Gulf Coast LNG → structural pressure on American gas prices through 2029
The Gap: ExxonMobil's Qatar LNG volume fell from 13 million tons last year to roughly 4 million tons this year, a 70% collapse tied to Train 4 and Train 6 sitting offline after the March 19 strike.
The Timeline: If QatarEnergy CEO Saad Al-Kaabi and ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods hold to the 3-to-5 year repair window both guided to on Q1 earnings calls, Henry Hub gas faces sustained upward pressure through 2029, with 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity offline.
The Signal: ExxonMobil booked an $800 million impairment on Qatar cargoes in Q1, a size that indicates management does not expect volume recovery on any near-term horizon.
I keep coming back to one thing Darren Woods said.
He runs Exxon. He was on the earnings call in April. He was talking about two gas plants in Qatar. Iranian missiles hit them on March 19. He used a soft phrase for what came next. He said the plants would be down for a "much longer time horizon."
I can't stop thinking about that phrase. It was code. Code for five years. Maybe more.
Here is what worries me. These two plants made a huge share of the world's gas. Not oil. Gas. The kind that heats your house in February. The kind that runs half the power plants in this country. And they will sit dark until at least 2029.
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The plants have plain names. Train 4 and Train 6. They live at a place called Ras Laffan on the coast of Qatar. Exxon owns about a third of each. Together they made 12.8 million tons of gas a year. That is one out of every six molecules of gas shipped on the ocean. All of it. Gone in one night in March.
I get it. This sounds far away. Qatar is far away. Iran is far away. The names are hard to say. But the gas is not far away. It shows up on your bill.
Exxon took an $800 million write-down on the Qatar cargoes last quarter. Real money. Their Qatar volume fell from 13 million tons last year to about 4 million this year. A 70% drop. And it stays down. That is the part nobody is saying out loud on TV.
Europe knows. Europe was buying a lot of that Qatar gas. Now it can't. So Europe is on the phone every day with Texas and Louisiana. They are locking in our Gulf Coast gas. Any price. Long deals. Ten and fifteen years. They will not sit through another winter like the last one.
American gas shippers are already booked. The wait list for a cargo out of the Gulf runs into 2027. That was not true a year ago. That was not true in February.
That is where it comes home. Our gas gets pulled across the ocean. The price at home goes up. And it stays up. For five winters. Maybe more.
Think about what runs on gas. Your furnace. Your stove. About 40% of the country's power comes from gas. So your electric bill too. The fertilizer that grows the corn is made from gas. That means your grocery bill. The plastic in half the store starts with gas. Utility stocks. Chemical stocks. All of it feels this.
So the bill on your kitchen counter in February is not only about the cold. It is about a night in March when two buildings on the other side of the world went quiet.
I've been checking my own gas bill this week. It's not spiking yet. That is the part that gets me. The damage is done and the price hasn't caught up. It's like watching a tree fall in slow motion. You know where it lands. You just have to wait.
The oddest part is that the two men who own the plants agree on the time. Woods at Exxon said it on his call. Saad Al-Kaabi at QatarEnergy said it on his call the same week. Both said the same window. Three to five years. That is not two men guessing. That is two men who know what parts are broken. Who know how long a new turbine takes to build in a factory in Germany. Who know the wait list. When both of them say five, it is five.
The killer number is three to five years. Or 12.8 million tons. Or $800 million. Pick the one that sticks with you. I keep coming back to the years.
Nobody knows how each month plays out. Gas prices jump around. Winter matters. Storage matters. A warm January can hide a lot. A cold January can wake everyone up at once. I don't know when the tape breaks. Nobody does.
But I don't think most people realize the clock is already running. It started on March 19. The Fed can talk about rates. The stock market can hop around. Congress can argue. None of that changes the two machines sitting dark in the desert. None of it puts them back online any faster.
The story on the front page today is oil up, yields near 5%, Fed might hike. That is the surface. Under it is a slow shadow. Five winters long. Most people can't see it because two damaged plants in a place they can't pronounce are not on the evening news.
I keep picturing Woods on that call. Careful. Quiet. Choosing his words like a man who does not want to scare the market. "Much longer time horizon." He was telling us. We just have to listen.
Two damaged machines. Half a world away. Sitting dark. Every winter until 2029.
More on this tomorrow.
— American Ledger
