A single ship is unloading in port this week. It's the last tanker that made it out of the Strait of Hormuz before the war. When it's done, the buffer is gone.
JPMorgan put a date on it: April 20th. After that, every drop of pre-war Gulf oil in the global pipeline is spent. There's no reserve sitting somewhere. There's no waiting ship. The cushion disappears, and prices go wherever the market takes them.
I can't stop thinking about this.
Before the war, 140 ships a day moved through the Strait of Hormuz. That's the number that kept everything running — your gas tank, the truck that stocked the grocery store, the flights you're booking for summer. One hundred and forty ships a day. This past Monday, two made it through. Loaded. Two.
Here's what worries me: most Americans still haven't felt it. Gas prices are high. People are annoyed. But the real hit hasn't landed yet. It lands next week. The pre-war oil kept a ceiling on what could happen. Once it's gone, there's no ceiling.
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Iran's chief negotiator posted a map of Washington-area gas prices on social media this week. His message was simple: "Soon you'll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas." He's not bluffing for fun. He's telling you what he thinks comes next.
I don't think most people realize how fast this can move. JPMorgan is warning that Brent crude could hit $150 a barrel if the strait stays shut into mid-May. That's roughly five weeks from now. The U.S. Energy Secretary said this week that prices will be "high, and maybe even rising" until ships move freely again. Nobody knows when that happens. Not the administration. Not the markets. Nobody.
The one number I keep coming back to: two ships versus one hundred and forty. That's a 98% drop in traffic. Think about what happens to any system that loses 98% of its flow. It doesn't slow down gradually. It stops.
Nobody knows exactly what a $150 barrel means at the pump. But rough math says $6 to $7 a gallon in most of the country. Higher in states that import more. That's not a prediction. That's the ceiling JPMorgan sees if this drags on.
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We've been here before — long gas lines, price shocks, political chaos. But we've never had a strait go from 140 ships to two in this short a time. This is faster than anything in the past fifty years. I get it if you're numb to the headlines. This one matters more than most.
More on this tomorrow.
— Lauren
Editor, American Ledger
