A retired couple in the suburbs of Dallas owns their four-bedroom house free and clear. No mortgage. They paid it off six years ago. They thought that was the finish line.

Last month their property tax bill came in $400 higher than last year. Their homeowners insurance renewed at 75 percent more than they paid in 2021. The lawn service went up. The roof estimate came in at $14,000. They haven't made a single mortgage payment in six years. And their house still costs them $1,380 a month.

I can't stop thinking about this number. Zillow and Thumbtack released a report last week that found the typical American homeowner now pays $16,566 a year in hidden costs. That's taxes. Insurance. Upkeep. Not one dollar of that is your mortgage. That figure has climbed 32 percent in five years.

Here's what worries me. For millions of people our age, the house isn't just where we live. It's the retirement plan. The Federal Reserve says baby boomers are sitting on $19 trillion in real estate. A study from the National Institute on Retirement Security found that home equity makes up about a third of the typical working adult's financial assets. Retirement savings make up a quarter. The house is the bigger number.

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And it's frozen solid.

I don't think most people realize how stuck the housing market really is. Last week the National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales fell 7.3 percent in September. That dropped the index to 66. That's the lowest reading since they started tracking it in 2001. Not during the financial crisis. Not during COVID. Now.

The reason is simple math. About 49 percent of every mortgage in America carries a rate below 4 percent. The current rate for a new 30-year loan is 7.32 percent. On a typical house that gap works out to about $1,000 more per month. Who's going to volunteer for that? Nobody. So 50 million homeowners sit. They don't list. They don't buy. The whole market seizes up.

Builder confidence tells the same story from the other side. The NAHB index fell to 29 in October. That's the lowest since June 2012. Thirty-eight percent of builders cut prices last month. Housing starts missed by 79,000 units. The market isn't slowing down. It stopped.

I get it. If you own your home outright and your rate is 3 percent you probably think this doesn't touch you. But that house still sends you a bill every single month. Insurance premiums are up 54 percent in five years. Property taxes are up 19 percent. Maintenance is up 32 percent. Add it all together and you're looking at that $1,380 a month number. Meanwhile your Social Security raise this year was about $56 a month. That COLA covers about 15 days of carrying costs on a house you already own.

So you think about downsizing. You talk about it at dinner. Maybe sell the four-bedroom and buy a condo. But a condo at today's rate means taking on a new mortgage at 7.32 percent. Even on a smaller place you might not save a dime in monthly cash. You freed up equity but you picked up a payment. It's a wash at best.

A survey from Redfin found that a third of baby boomer homeowners say they will never sell. Another 30 percent say not in the next decade. It's not stubbornness. It's arithmetic. They did the math and it doesn't work.

The Fed meets Wednesday. Markets expect a hold at 3.75 to 4 percent. But 16 of 18 Fed officials expect at least one more hike this year. The dot plot points to December. Either way mortgage rates stay above 7 percent. That means the lock stays on. Nobody moves. Nobody sells. The trap gets tighter.

Here's the number I keep coming back to. Baby boomers hold $19 trillion in housing wealth. That's more than their retirement accounts. Less than their brokerage balances. And almost none of it produces a dollar of income. It just sits there getting more expensive to maintain every year. Property and investments generate just 6 percent of retiree income across the board. The biggest asset on the balance sheet is the one that costs you money every month and pays you nothing.

We spent 30 years being told our house was our best investment. For a lot of us it was. It went up every year. We refinanced at 3 percent and felt smart. Now it's worth more than ever. And we can't touch it. We can't sell it without losing the rate. We can't stay without watching the bills climb faster than our checks. The front door is unlocked but nobody can walk through it.

More on this tomorrow.

— American Ledger